Climate change far from certain

Predicted ocean level rise is based on completely unproven models that suggest such a rise as a worst-case scenario in 100 years

Re: Climate change will prove costly for Oak Bay (Oak Bay News Dec. 3).

According to Mayor Nils Jensen, there is “recent science” that indicates the sea level will rise by one metre by the end of the century.  Nonsense.  This assertion is based on completely unproven models that suggest such a rise as a worst-case scenario in 100 years based on countless assumptions (which is definitely not science).

What will probably happen to ocean levels is what has actually happened to ocean levels since the end of the last ice age: seven inches of rise per century.  This means you can relax Mayor Jensen – Oak Bay needn’t worry about ocean flooding for about 600 years.

Similar nonsense was stated by David Suzuki in the News several weeks ago when he claimed that the 10 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998.  This is simply not true.

According to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the 10 hottest years on record are (in order, warmest first): 1934, 1998, 1921, 2006, 1931, 1999, 1953, 1990, 1938 and 1954.

That said, it would have been much warmer than these years during the Medieval Warming Period that occurred between approximately 950 AD and 1250 AD when most of the northern hemisphere was 1C to 3C warmer than today.  During this time Greenland was widely inhabited and the British Isles had a bourgeoning grape growing and wine making industry (something impossible today – it’s far too cold).

The News should engage in some fact-checking before publishing such alarmist nonsense.

D. Gramlich

Oak Bay

 

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