‘Perfect storm’ forming in South Island housing market

New report suggests prices for the South Island’s housing market, for renters and owners, are set to increase in 12 to 18 months

Multiple factors are colliding to create pent-up demand for housing on the South Island

Multiple factors are colliding to create pent-up demand for housing on the South Island

If you’ve been thinking about moving into another home but have put it off due to the recent housing spike, you may want to re-think that decision and act while you still can.

Prices for the South Island’s already intense housing market, for renters and owners, are set to go up in 12 to 18 months, according to a new report from The Real Estate Investment Network.

The third-party real estate analyst agency released the report on Greater Victoria last week, marking it as a sustainable investment market that’s poised to outperform many other non-Metro-Vancouver real estate markets in B.C.

Victoria’s extremely low vacancy rate of 0.6 per cent is forecast to remain low through 2017 and beyond.

It’s the start of a long-term trend that will see demand completely outstrip supply in Greater Victoria, with prices that will continue to rise unless action is taken.

“There are too many factors, all putting a demand on densification (that isn’t here),” said Don Campbell, a senior analyst with REIN.

“Put that on top of the already-occurring trend of moving to the South Island, and it’s a perfect storm forming.”

He said Greater Victoria needs to keep talking density, including easier secondary suite approvals, laneway cottages and detached suites, or it’s going to see a potentially out-of-control increase in street rents (prices for available suites).

Vancouver’s much-ballyhooed foreign buyers tax does in fact shift demand to Greater Victoria. However, it’s only one of many factors causing the upward movement of property demand and values, the REIN study found.

“A few offshore buyers will consider Victoria, and you’ve always had people moving here from the Prairies, that’s not changing,” Campbell said.

The pressure comes from the 27 per cent of Canadians who are baby boomers, heading into retirement, and considering a move to the South Island.

At the same time, 27 per cent of the population are 20 to 29-year-old millennials, half of whom still live in their parents’ houses. They’re ready to enter the market.

The University of Victoria also brings in a great deal of renters, as 74 per cent of its 20,000 students come in from out of town.

UVic has also done a better job of keeping grads here with a startup industry.

“That’s a big dam of pent-up demand for housing and rentals in the next five years, it’s the highest pent-up demand we’ve ever seen,” Campbell said.

Making Greater Victoria attractive is new jobs and diversification of job sectors, including an increasing technology sector, with 880 tech companies creating 15,000 direct jobs.

REIN also looked at Saanich’s controversial environmental development permit area bylaw. Campbell’s consensus is that, even with restrictions on the development of EDPA properties, they’ll end up increasing in value anyways.

“Anytime you have a restriction on densification, you’ll have an imbalance, and in Saanich in 12 to 18 months there will be a real imbalance,” Campbell said. “That’ll exist until there’s more stock available for people to move to.”

 

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Victoria Hospice staff Brianne Ohl, left, Angela Chalmers, right, and Sandi Ogloff, at back, show off their buttons that show a picture of them smiling. Staff has worked hard to maintain the connections with patients despite the barriers of PPE and rigid COVID-19 protocols. (Victoria Hospice Photo)
Hospice provides compassion in a time of COVID

Victoria Hospice 40th anniversary on pause during pandemic

Look for the Random Act of Kindness Day colouring contest in Black Press issues Jan. 17. Physical entries can be mailed or dropped off to local Black Press offices. A scanned or photographed entry can be emailed to info@victoriafoundation.bc.ca. Winning entries can get a $50 gift card to Bolen Books and a $100 donation to a charity of their choice from the VIctoria Foundation. (Pixabay)
Colouring contest coming for Kindness Day

Kindness Day colouring contest in partnership with Victoria Foundation

Sidney has moved the remaining parts of its public consultation phase part of the Official Community Plan online. (Black Press Media File)
Sidney moves to an ‘all online engagement’ process for OCP

Staff says OCP charrette scheduled for mid-February

(File photo)
‘Very lucky’: Two passengers, dog escape rollover crash in Saanich unscathed

Vehicle flips on Trans Canada Highway after hitting median, possibly due to ice, firefighter says

The large metal gate stolen from Muddy Valley Farm in rural Saanich on Jan. 18 reappeared less than a week later. (Muddy Valley Farm/Facebook)
Large metal gate stolen from Saanich farm makes mysterious reappearance

12-foot gate returned to Muddy Valley Farm less than a week after it was stolen

U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders sits in on a COVID-19 briefing with Dr. Bonnie Henry, provincial health officer, and Adrian Dix, B.C. minister of health. (Birinder Narang/Twitter)
PHOTOS: Bernie Sanders visits B.C. landmarks through the magic of photo editing

Residents jump on viral trend of photoshopping U.S. senator into images

Nanaimo Regional General Hospital. (News Bulletin file photo)
COVID-19 outbreak declared at Nanaimo hospital

Two staff members and one patient have tested positive, all on the same floor

A long-term care worker receives the Pfizer vaccine at a clinic in Nanaimo earlier this month. (Island Health photo)
All Island seniors in long-term care will be vaccinated by the end of this weekend

Immunization of high-risk population will continue over the next two months

A 75-year-old aircraft has been languishing in a parking lot on the campus of the University of the Fraser Valley, but will soon be moved to the B.C. Aviation Museum. (Paul Henderson/ Chilliwack Progress)
Vintage military aircraft moving from Chilliwack to new home at B.C. Aviation Museum

The challenging move to Vancouver Island will be documented by Discovery Channel film crews

A video posted to social media by Chilliwack resident Rob Iezzi shows a teenager getting kicked in the face after being approached by three suspects on Friday, Jan. 22, 2021. (YouTube/Rob i)
VIDEO: Security cameras capture ‘just one more assault’ near B.C. high school

Third high-school related assault captured by Chilliwack resident’s cameras since beginning of 2021

FILE - In this Feb. 14, 2017, file photo, Oklahoma State Rep. Justin Humphrey prepares to speak at the State Capitol in Oklahoma City. A mythical, ape-like creature that has captured the imagination of adventurers for decades has now become the target of Rep. Justin Humphrey. Humphrey, a Republican House member has introduced a bill that would create a Bigfoot hunting season, He says issuing a state hunting license and tag could help boost tourism. (Steve Gooch/The Oklahoman via AP, File)
Oklahoma lawmaker proposes ‘Bigfoot’ hunting season

A Republican House member has introduced a bill that would create a Bigfoot hunting season

Economic Development and Official Languages Minister Melanie Joly responds to a question in the House of Commons Monday November 23, 2020 in Ottawa. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Federal minister touts need for new B.C. economic development agency

Last December’s federal economic update promised a stimulus package of about $100 billion this year

FILE - In this Nov. 20, 2017, file photo, Larry King attends the 45th International Emmy Awards at the New York Hilton, in New York. Former CNN talk show host King has been hospitalized with COVID-19 for more than a week, the news channel reported Saturday, Jan. 2, 2021. CNN reported the 87-year-old King contracted the coronavirus and was undergoing treatment at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles. (Photo by Andy Kropa/Invision/AP, File)
Larry King, broadcasting giant for half-century, dies at 87

King conducted an estimated 50,000 on-air interviews

Comox Valley RCMP are looking for witnesses after the theft of a generator worth thousands of dollars. Photo supplied
RCMP asking Vancouver Island residents to watch for stolen generator

Vehicle may have been travelling on Highway 19

Most Read